### tudy on the Uncertainty of Drilling Geological Parameters by the Uncertainty Theory

#### Abstract

The drilling geological parameters reflect the integrated nature of the oil and gas geological basic data. The knowledge of them are important to avoid the drilling risk. Due tothe complexity ofpetroleum geology, the incompleteness of the logging or seismic data, the precision ofthe mathematical model and other issues, the true value of drilling geological parameters can be hardly obtained. Based on the theory of stratigraphic science and uncertainty, the method of describing the uncertainty of the drilling geological parameters was established. Firstly, the drilling geological parameters interpreted by logging or seismic data in the same stratum were regarded as the measured sample. Then the probability distribution or interval range of drilling geological parameters at each measurement point were determined based on this sample. Finally the uncertainty interval of parameters of drilling geological parameters along with the well depth can be obtained. The results of example showed that the uncertain description of the drilling geological parameters was more relevant with the practical engineering.

#### Keywords

#### Full Text:

PDF#### References

Petroleum well logging society of China Petroleum Institute. Geological application of well logging data [M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press 1991.

Eaton B A. The equation for geo-pressure prediction from well logs[R]. SPE5544, 1975.

Udegbunam J E. Improved Well Design with Risk and Uncertainty Analysis [J]. University of Stavanger Norway, 2015.

Irrgang R, Irrgang H, and Kravis S, et al. Assessment of Risk and Uncertainty for Field Developments: Integrating Reservoir and Drilling Expertise [J]. 2001.

Dou Yuling. Research on the Drilling Fluid Density Window and Casing Layers Design in Deep Water [D]. Dongying: China University of Petroleum 2006.

Keke. Casing Program Design Method for Deep water Drilling [D]. Dongying: China University of Petroleum 2009.

Doyen P M, Malinverno A, Prioul R, et al. Seismic pore pressure prediction with uncertainty using a probabilistic mechanical earth model[C]// Seg Technical Program Expanded. 2003:1366.

Sayers C M, Boer L D, Nagy Z R, et al. Well-constrained seismic estimation of pore pressure with uncertainty [J]. Seg Technical Program Expanded Abstracts, 2006, 25(1):1530.

Alberto M, Sayers C, Woodward M, et al. Integrating Diverse Measurements to Predict Pore Pressure With Uncertainties While Drilling[C]// Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2004.

Ran B, Osypov K S, Sayers C M. Estimating velocities with uncertainty: US, US 20130116928 A1 [P]. 2013.

Lin Hongye. Measurement error and uncertainty evaluation [M]. Beijing: China Machine Press 2010.

R.E.Moore. Methods and Applications of Interval Analysis. SIAM Philadephia, 1979.

Qi Liqun. Interval analysis [J]. Journal of Operational Research, 1982?1(1)?29-35.

O.Catuneanu. Principles of sequence stratigraphy [M]. WuYinye translated. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press 2009.

Liaw A L. Theory and Applications of Integrated Pore Pressure Prediction in Deepwater Exploration[C]// 2008.

Tang H, Luo J, Qiu K, et al. Worldwide Pore Pressure Prediction: Case Studies and Methods [J]. 2011.

### Refbacks

- There are currently no refbacks.