Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode
Stable egg prices in China are related to people's livelihood, and layer farmers are facing the risk of large fluctuations in egg prices. This paper verifies that the AR-Net model can predict egg futures prices better than neural network model or other universal statistical models. Based on this result, the AR-Net model is also used to determine the insurance price and premium rates, further to evaluate price risk management effect of the "insurance + futures" mode. On this basis, we obtained several important conclusions: (1) Compared to other price prediction methods, AR-Net model is more suitable for egg futures price prediction in China. (2) China’s egg "insurance +futures" mode can conducive to stabilizing the income of layer farmers. (3) "Insurance + Futures" mode can exert better risk management results compared with traditional "insurance + futures" mode and agricultural price insurance.